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In the rich world the era of sharp-edged capitalism is giving way to a golden age for labour
发达国家正从大刀阔斧的资本主义时代转向劳动力的黄金时代
In the popular imagination the past four decades were wonderful for the owners of capital and miserable for labour. The rich world’s workers endured competition from trade, relentless technological change, more unequal wages and tepid recoveries from recessions. Investors and companies enjoyed expanding global markets, liberalised finance and low corporate taxes. Even before covid19, this caricature of broken labour markets was mistaken. Today, as the economy emerges from the pandemic, a reversal of the primacy of capital over labour beckons—and it will come sooner than you think.
在大众的印象中，过去的四十年是资本家的黄金时代，也是劳动者的悲惨时代。发达国家的劳动者经历了贸易的竞争、技术的不断革新、愈发不平等的薪资以及经济衰退后的缓慢恢复。而全球市场的扩张，金融限制的解除，企业税费的降低，都让投资人和大公司如鱼得水。但即便在新冠爆发之前，这种对于劳动力市场悲观景象的夸大也并不准确。如今，经济逐渐从疫情中恢复过来，资本优先正在转向劳动力优先——这种转变速度比预想的要快。
It might seem premature to predict a wonderful world of work only a year on from a labourmarket catastrophe. But America is showing how rapidly jobs can come back as the virus recedes. In the spring of 2020 the country’s unemployment rate was nearly 15%. Now it is already just 6% after a year containing five of the ten best months for hiring in history. Public perceptions of how easy it is to find a job have already recovered to levels that it took nearly a decade to reach after the global financial crisis. And even in Europe, which is suffering a third wave of infections, the labour market is beating forecasts as economies adapt to viruscontainment measures.
劳动力市场遭受重创才刚刚过去了一年，现在对就业市场进行美好的憧憬为时尚早。但随着疫情不断消退，美国的就业市场正展现出惊人的恢复力。2020年春季，美国的失业率接近15%。如今已经保持在6%左右。这是因为美国历史上求职最理想的10个月份中，有5个都来自去年。公众对于求职难度的概念也已经逐渐恢复到金融危机10年后的水平。甚至正在遭受第三轮感染的欧洲，随着各个经济体逐渐适应疫情管控措施，其劳动力市场也高于预期。
As the labour market recovers, two deeper shifts are unfolding, in politics and in technology. Start with the political environment, which is becoming friendlier to workers than it has been for decades. An early sign of change was the surge in minimum wages during the previous economic cycle. Relative to average wages, they rose by more than a quarter in the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries, weighted by population. Now governments and institutions are falling over themselves to chum up to workers. President Joe Biden hopes to use his planned infrastructure splurge to promote unionisation and to pay generous wages. Central banks are worrying ever more about jobs and less about inflation. It was not a prank when on April 1st the IMF, once famed for its austerity, floated the idea of oneoff solidarity taxes on the rich and on companies. In his letter to shareholders this week, Jamie Dimon, the boss of JPMorgan Chase, Wall Street’s biggest firm, called for higher wages—and he wasn’t talking about CEOs.
随着劳动力市场复苏，政治和技术方面有两个更深层次的转变正在进行。首先是政治环境的转变，这是近几十年来对劳动者最为友好的环境。这种变化的一个早期的迹象就是最低工资标准在之前的几个经济循环中猛涨。在大多数发达国家组成的俱乐部——经济合作发展组织中，根据人口测算，相较于平均工资，这些国家最低工资增长超过25%。现在，各大政府和机构都在竭力拉拢劳动者。拜登总统希望通过大量投资基础设施来促进工会发展并支付可观的工资。央行宁愿冒着通货膨胀的风险也要促进就业。4月1日，向来以紧缩政策闻名的国际货币基金组织也开始考虑向富人和公司征收一次性的团结税，而这并非愚人节的玩笑。华尔街巨头公司摩根大通的老板杰米·戴蒙在本周给股东的信中呼吁涨工资——他说的可不仅仅是给这些高层涨工资。
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