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Is Pakistan really doing a better job of suppressing the pandemic?
巴基斯坦的抗疫是否做得更好?
In statistics if not in cricket, India tends to trump its perennial rival Pakistan. It is four times larger in area, seven times in population and ten times in GDP. Yet in the dismal realm of covid-19, bigger numbers are nothing to boast of. According to both countries’ official tallies, every week of the past month has claimed more Indian lives than the entire nine months of the pandemic have in Pakistan—some 6,500.
除了板球以外，印度在各项数据上都要强于老对手巴基斯坦。印度的国土面积是巴基斯坦的四倍，人口是巴基斯坦的七倍，GDP是巴基斯坦的十倍。然而在疫情的笼罩之下，这种数量上的优势反而成为了一个弱势。根据两个国家的官方统计，印度在上个月每周的新增病例都达到了6500人左右，这一数字超过了巴基斯坦整整九个月的合计病例数。
Whereas India’s burden is still rising by 70,000 new cases a day, Pakistan’s caseload seems to have peaked three months ago. Its daily total of new cases has remained in the mere hundreds since early August. India’s economy has also fared far worse. The Asian Development Bank predicts that its GDP will shrink by fully 9% in the current fiscal year, compared with a contraction of 0.4% for Pakistan.
印度的单日新增病例已经增长到七万例，而巴基斯坦的确诊顶峰已经过去了三个月。八月以来，巴基斯坦每日新确诊病例保持在100例左右。印度的经济情况更加糟糕。亚洲发展银行预计在本财政年度，印度的GDP会减少9%，而巴基斯坦只减少了0.4%。
“We have not only managed to control the virus, stabilise our economy, but most importantly, we have been able to protect the poorest segment of our society from the worst fallouts of the lockdown,” crowed Imran Khan, Pakistan’s prime minister, in a recent video address to the UN General Assembly. Meanwhile, ordinary Pakistanis are doffing masks and disregarding social-distance rules. “I didn’t fall sick and neither did anyone I know,” declares Irfanullah Khan, a grocer in Islamabad’s Najam market. “Now it’s over.”
巴基斯坦总理伊姆兰·汗在联合国大会的视频中强调称：“我们不仅遏制了疫情的蔓延、稳定了国内的经济，最重要的是我们还保障了那些最贫穷的居民，让他们免遭封锁带来的巨大影响。”与此同时，巴基斯坦民众正在摘下口罩，社交隔离的规定也不再束缚他们。伊凡努拉·汗(Irfanullah Khan)是伊斯兰堡纳贾姆(Najam)市场里一家杂货店的老板，他说：“我没有感染新冠，我认识的人也都没感染。病毒已经过去了。”
Experts loudly chorus that such conclusions are wrong, yet they do concur that Pakistan is enjoying an unexpected reprieve. For weeks in late summer, international health officials were reluctant to accept that the rapid fall in cases as revealed by testing data could really be correct. Yet the proportion of tests coming back positive was also falling, as were the numbers of people being taken to hospital or being kept in intensive care.
专家们都认为这种结论大错特错，但他们也承认，虽然有些出人意料，但巴基斯坦的疫情确实不太严重。夏季的最后几周，监测数据显示病例正在大幅下降。而国际卫生官员不愿承认这一结果的正确性。但是，检测结果呈阳性的比例正在下降，被送往医院或重症监护室的人数也在下降。
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